ULI conference blog
Europe’s property elite huddled together at the Urban Land Institute’s annual Parisian conference this week, hoping to get some clarity on what they might expect this year. “None of us know what’s going to happen”, the European Investment Bank’s senior economist Brian Field, told them. So what we suspected is true: it’s the blind leading the blind.
The keynote speakers laid on some scary scenarios: lost decades of Japanese-style stagnation, financial ruin because of the unsustainable promises governments made on pensions and healthcare, and much of Bangladesh, plus my brother’s house in Florida going undersea because of climate change.
Fortunately, Oxford Prof Andreas Boltho doesn’t think we’re heading for the Japanese scenario, rather another, shallower recession which could get ugly if the Euro breaks down – which he doesn’t expect to happen “because of the political capital invested”. Credit Suisse’s global demographer Dr Amian Roy had some solutions and helpful tips on investment sectors: pharma/bio, financial services, leisure & luxury, infrastructure and natural resources. And Prof Dr Ernst von Weizsacker, who co-chairs the international panel for sustainable resource management, also outlined how we might avoid going underwater. Interestingly, all three agree that higher energy taxes and a Tobin tax on financial transactions are good ideas.
Getting back down to the real estate, unsurprisingly, debt loomed large in the discussions. Alan Patterson, AXA Real Estate’s European head of research & strategy, dared to ask whether we need debt – is it helping investments (the evidence is that over a cycle it adds little to performance) or increasing volatility? A brave suggestion, since AXA not only uses gearing in its funds but is big on buying property debt. Patterson’s fund manager panelists – Christian Delaire, AEW’s CEO, John Barakat of M&G, and Max Barclay of Newsec aren’t going to go cold turkey.
And while the banks might be out of action, debt is the plat du jour for investors – there’s good money to be made providing it. Insurers and others with money are all eyeing this arena and talking of setting up funds, etc. Don’t hold your breath, it’s going to be a slow process. And, as John Barakat pointed out (he should know, having lent and bought ₤ 5bn of the stuff) “if you aggregate all the so-called new players, they will not replace the reduction of debt that RBS will undertake by itself”.
On equity, nothing new. It’s out there, but scared or waiting for the stock to start flowing. ULI’s Emerging Trends survey found 59% expecting more distressed sales by lenders this year, but we’ve been expecting this since 2009. And there’s pricing. “Secondary has to correct by 20%-30% for it to become attractive”, said Patterson.
This year, the conference’s billing was “The Only Problems Left are the Big Ones”. There weren’t many answers, though Prof Boltho did have a novel and cheap solution to the debt problem. Germans are much less indebted than most other Europeans, he pointed out. In German, the word for debt, “Schulde”, sounds like the one for sin “Sünde”, so for Germans, borrowing is subconsciously sinful. Rename debt and we profligate Europeans will virtuously de-gear.
Alex Catalano, consultant editor